Review by: Myra Salzer
It’s not often that I read a book cover to cover, every paragraph, every word. In fact, if you include the notes section, I think I would have to admit that I’ve never read a book cover to cover. The Storm Before the Calm, by George Friedman, is one of the few exceptions, not only because I devoured it cover to cover, but I did so twice. The reason I read it a second time was because after Trump was elected in 2024, I wanted to see if his predictions actually manifested. They did!
The first time I read it was at the end of President Trump’s first term. It talked about the socioeconomic cycle and the institutional cycle as they oscillated since the founding of the country. It convincingly explained how the institutional cycle is an 80-year cycle, and the socioeconomic cycle is a 50-year cycle.
Excerpt: “The first institutional cycle began with the end of the Revolutionary War and the drafting of the Constitution in the mid-1780s and ended in 1865 with the Civil War. The second institutional cycle ended eighty years later with the end of World War II. The strains of the next transition are becoming obvious now and will take place around 2025.”
The socioeconomic cycle oscillates in approximately 50-year phases. Friedman describes these cycles since the mid 1700s with an elegance and simplicity that make them relatable. The last socioeconomic cycle began around 1980 with the ending of Carter’s administration and the beginning of Reagan’s term. We are due for our next socioeconomic phase soon.
The book is every bit as much a history lesson as it is a predictor of what is potentially to come. What I learned is that for the first time since the founding of the country, both the industrial cycle and the socioeconomic cycle are shifting into their next phase at the same time. When the book was first published in 2020, Friedman predicted a divisive environment until at least 2028-2032. That certainly is proving correct as we have experienced a divisive government and polarized politics.
I found comfort in his assessment that it would not matter who won the 2024 election; the shift will come whether Harris or Trump is in office.
So, dear Blog reader, hold onto your hats. We are in for a turbulent ride for the next several years. And take comfort, this too shall pass and will be onto the next magnificent phase.